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Discussion Starter #1
Let's start this off by referencing that tired thought of "combat sports never will be as big as team sports"... or that combat sports will always be niche and never be main stream... this is not reality.

Combat Sports, since the days of pankration style of combat in Greece to the gladiators in Rome is the oldest spectator sport there is. Long before anyone ever invented a ball two guys decided to throw bungalows and scrap.

In fact, a combat sport called boxing was not only the first real mainstream sport in the United States, it was also the most popular sport for a good portion of the 20th century.

Jack Dempsey pulled a gate in the 1920's that's equivalent to 11 million dollars in today's money. Team sports was nothing compared to boxing. NFL players were bagging your groceries Monday through Wednesday. The entire country was listening to fights, and then watching fights when TV was introduced. The entire country was following Dempsey, Marciano, Ali, Sugar Ray, Tyson.

Mike Tyson, who at the time wasn't even at his peak of popularity got a 49 share in his fight against Spinks. That means half the TV sets in the entire country were all simultaneously tuned in... to give you an idea, the superbowl in all it's history has only hit a 49 share not 10 times. Not even 5. Just once. Superbowl XVI.

Boxing wasn't a "niche sport"... it turned itself into a slowly dying sport in the states because of it's flawed structure and corruption.

Team sport is something of a new phenomenon... the oldest being polo which was created in 1862.

But, what does that mean for the MMA? Now that we've put to rest the invalid perception of combat sports we can see that the UFC has already proven in the marketplace that it's the superior combat sport and product by surpassing boxing within just 10 years in the states (ppv's and eyeballs on content)... The UFC did this in a market population dynamic where over 40% of the country is made up with the 'boxing generation'.

Look at these numbers:

Boxing on ESPN averages around 500k viewers. What's startling is that it gets a 0.1 share in the 18-49 target market... that means 400k of the 500k viewers are over 50 years old... Within 30 years 80% of their viewership will be dead!

Compare this to the UFC on Versus 1 which was available in over 20 million LESS homes than ESPN: 1.1 million viewers with a 1.21 rating in the 18-49 target demo which means roughly 850k of those viewers are under 50 years old.

The UFC is breeding boxing fans out.

Next we'll extrapolate this into PPV.
 
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Discussion Starter #3
The over 50 year old market which grew up with boxing represents over 60% of consumer spending. If Boxing was a healthy sport then they'd be doing 3 million ppv buys in this market dynamic easily. The biggest fights today would do over 5 million buys not 2.4 million. Boxing missed it's window by blowing it's wad too early... within 30 years a huge portion of the boxing fanbase will be dead. The growth in the latino population in the states may buffer that a decade but most of that growth is via birth not immigration. Boxing will be as popular cricket is in the States.

What does that mean for the UFC and MMA? Not only are boxing fans being slowly bred out, but there's only a 5% overlap in the fan base that financially supports the spot according to the PPV industry.

You have ~1.6 million buyers for ufc 100 and a projected 2.4 million buyers for Floyd/Pacman with only a 5% overlap. That means there's roughly 4 million ppv buyers for combat sports right now... does that look like a niche sport? What do you think is going to happen as those over 50 die and the boxing generation is replaced with the UFC generation?

Let's extrapolate this further to TV since we're talking about Fox.

Zuffa became the largest ppv provider in the world while on Spike. To give you an idea of the Spike platform... a CSI rerun on CBS nets more than 4 times the viewership that it does on Spike in the same time slot... when the WWE moved to spike it was only pulling 60% of it's normal viewership from when it was on the USA network.

So to say platform wont make that much of a difference is beyond naive. It's as dumb as saying american idol would do just as well on MTV as it would on fox...well they are almost in the same amount of homes and mtv fits the product demo perfectly. Obviously it doesnt work like that... american idol wouldnt be pulling 20 plus million viewers or anywhere near those numbers on mtv.

So what does the platform mean, and what does the viewership look like... we've already established that combat sports can be just as prominent and mainstream as team sports and we've also established that the UFC has proven to be the superior combat sport in the US marketplace over boxing.

Does that mean the UFC will pull a 49 share like boxing? No, because over 40% of the population is the boxing generation... they are untouchable - you'd have to wait 30 years to replicate a more fair population dynamic

So we cut that in half,... does that mean the UFC will pull a 24 share? no, because in the late 80's there were like a dozen TV channels, now we have 500 channels and the internet.

So we cut that in half again....does that mean the UFC will pull a 12 share? roughly 15 million viewers? that is a reasonable ceiling based on market dynamics.

UFC 134 was watched in over 20 million viewers in Brazil after being on network TV for about a YEAR... it's not out of the realm of possibility that within 7 years and FOX's backing the UFC will be pulling huge numbers here.

This is why FOX originally wanted a financial stake in the UFC... This is why FOX went all in with a 7 year 700 million dollar deal.

Fox doesnt look at box office receipts for the movie "warrior" to see where the UFC is headed or how big it's going to be.
 
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Discussion Starter #4
So now the question on everyone's mind is what will the numbers look like initially on FOX or what should they look like. Some people are still pondering if FOX could drop the UFC pending some horrendous failure. Zuffa doesnt sign stupid deals, they never have and never will... but then again the argument is that neither does FOX so let's explore this.

We know Zuffa didnt sign a sitcom pilot deal that can be cancelled after a few episodes so the question is why would FOX make such a long term commitment and take the risk in case it tanked? First, it's not a weekly commitment on a weeknight primetime slot on big FOX.... it's only a guarantee of 4 shows a year - which is nothing compared to the upside.

What's the upside? Fox owns this nearly worthless channel called FUEL. It's available in less than 30 million homes... why is the UFC so valuable for a property like this? Because the UFC is the largest PPV provider in the world... do you think you need alot more incentive to motivate cable and satelite operators to carry and support a channel that essentially promotes one of their own revenue streams? Suddenly Fuel will open up in a ton of Viacom dominated markets.

The UFC could do shit on FOX and FX and the deal would still be worth it in FOX's eyes if it doubled or tripled the available reach of FUEL because that would more than double or triple the value of the FUEL property which more than makes up for the cost of 7 year UFC deal.

Now you see why Zuffa wanted it's own channel, because of it's leverage with the cable and satelite companies.

But even though Zuffa doesnt get ownership of a channel and Fox doesnt get ownership of the UFC but they both signed an excellent deal from each perspective. It's as if they do have that ownership because it's so synergistic where it seems like it's just accounting that separates actual requity relationships.

But going back to the inital numbers... based on historical data we came to 15 million viewers as a reasonable ceiling estimate in the current marketplace but that's after penetration (which boxing had at the time of Tyson) so that's a reasonable goal post within 7 years.

But If you still think 15 million is a joke using historical boxing data and drilling down from there with population and behavioral dynamics, then let's look at it from the complete opposite direction and you'll notice something pretty amazing:

We already said that CSI reruns on CBS pulls over 4 times the number that it does on Spike in the same time slot. Let's look at FOX and Spike. Fox has about 5 times the average viewership that Spike does on that time slot (saturday night primetime).

UFC pulled 4.6 million viewers on Spike with the Rampage/Hendo fight but that was at a time where free live UFC content was scarce. So let's take the average of Silva/Irvin and Couture/Vera (even though Zuffa will be presenting better cards)... and you get roughly 3 million viewers on spike. Fox has 5 times the average viewership, which means 5 times the traffic, which means 5 times the inluence. if you multiply the 3 million by 5 you come to the same number we came to before using historical viewrship of combat sports in this country: 15 million.
 
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Discussion Starter #7
...to say that Spike is available in almost as many homes so if 15 million people really wanted to watch the UFC they would already be watching it on Spike is about as dumb as saying the fairgrounds flea market is open to everyone so if "x" number of people really wanted "y" product they would get it and it would make no difference even if it was displayed on an eye level shelf in Walmart.

People live in this MMA bubble so it's hard to see reality... Let's use american idol for example...

MTV is one of the most prominent and well-known free cable channels out there and fits the demo for the american idol product (much like how spike fit the ufc demo). Imagine for a moment that american idol was on MTV... do you think Idol would be averaging over 20 million viewers on mtv? absolutely not. It's record viewership is 12.7 million which it hit once. Idol on Fox doubled MTV's record viewership every week it was on in 2009.

Jersey shore is it's most popular product and it gets around 4 million viewers a week. American idol would pull around the same on MTV.... roughly 1/5th or 1/4th the fox viewership... so forget about UFC for a moment.... can you see how idol pulls 4 to 5 times the viewership on Fox that it would on a channel like MTV?

Even if you cut the factor of 5 in half it would mean 7.5 million viewers on fox for the UFC which would be a home run by any measure.... That's higher than NASCAR hits in a less valuable time slot.

but what about right now... is 15 million a reasonable ceiling right now? no, because penetration needs to hit critical mass and that will happen within 4 or 5 years.

For the debut over 8 million would be a home run.

Over 6 million would be a hit.

4.5 million or less would mean I would have to redo my projection model.

The initial number is important because Fox is going to start selling the FX Ultimate Fighter inventory based on it, the next Fox show and start gearing up some partnerships with sponsors on FUEL. But overall the average across 4 shows will be more important.

So once penetration is at critical mass within 4 years, by my estimation a reasonable ceiling will be 15 million viewers and the average will settle somewhere between 8 to 12 million.

Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to the mainstream era.
 
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Discussion Starter #12
Hendo vs Shogun lines just opened @

Shogun -160
Hendo +130


I'd jump all over Dan before the line closed in on even money.
 

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Я лучше &#1074
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1,751 Posts
Oh, come on now. You've been here long enough. You know the point.

New girl (or in this case, slightly used girl) comes on here looking for attention. Generally, it's a girl who has already humped/blown/shoved a candle up the ass of, another member of kcsr.

After the relationship/one night stand/childbirth goes bad, they come on here looking to piss off their ex/score some new cock.

They start with a "HI, I'M NEW" thread wherein they try to be funny/shy/bashful/notawhore, but when they don't get the maximum attention they want, they cave in and go straight for the posting of pics. About 50% of the time they have to remove them almost immediately because they are not as cute as they thought/got too much creepy leghumping/got threatened by their ex.

If the "new girl" thread doesn't get them the attention they so desperately crave, then they create random threads, generally having some kind of sexual innuendo. All attention whores know that prepubescent nerdboys love talking about sex, even when they're not getting any. At some point, even the random threads will contain a pic or two to keep the e-cocks stiff and the inbox full.

Because no girl actually stumbles across this site by accident and virtually all of them have been turned out/sodomized/bored .030 over, by some guy who is already on here, the nudes will begin circulating. 25% of the guy on here will be disgusted by the whore who lets guys take nudes of them which inevitably end up all over the internets. 75% of the guys on here will IM, PM and myspace her nonstop after seeing them.

She will eventually start sucking off some other kcsr dude and ultimately get passed around like a bag of Funyuns at Photoroller's house after an all night bong session. More jizz will be worn, more holes will be wallowed out and more nudes will be taken. After she becomes the next kcsr bicycle, she will end up pregnant and left to figure out which of the jobless, broke losers from this site that she fucked is the father of her bastard child.

She'll post here and there and her crappy posts will be met with a spattering of merciless ridicule followed by the requisite Captain Save-a-Hos (who deep down inside know that she's a filthy whore but strongly believe that by defending her honor online, they'll get to see her vagina in real life). After banging a few more kcsr dudes, she'll find some poor sucker off of corral.net or mofbodyforums to take care of her and her illegitimate kid and you'll only see an occasional nude or short .gif of her fingering herself online so she can try to make enough money to pay for both baby formula and drag radials for her *******, ex felon, new boyfriend.

THAT, son, is the point of this thread.
 
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Discussion Starter #14
I'm not a girl, you mouth breathing retard.

WTF exactly are you babbling on about? Sounds like the feverish tirades of he who sees no pussy.
 

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Professional ninja
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2,692 Posts
Let me introduce you to the mayans.

The Mesoamerican Ball Game: The First Team Sport in Human History | Suite101.com

As early as 1700 BC, the peoples of Mesoamerica played a court based game deeply rooted in sacred symbolism and rituals.



From 1700 BC, eight different Mesoamerican civilizations adopted the ball game into their culture and a variation of it is still being played today. These civilizations include, the Olmec, the inhabitants of Western Mexico, the Teotihuacan, the Maya, the Veracruz, the Toltec the Huastec and the Aztec.

The First Ball Players

The Mesoamerican ball game began in the Olmec culture in 1400 BC, although its origins could possibly be before that. The earliest known balls come from El Manati, a sacrificial bog in the Olmec heartland along the Gulf Coast. Here they have found twelve balls, five of which have been dated between 1700 and 1600 BC. The first Olmec court dated from 600 to 400 BC although ball player figurines in the area date back to 1250 BC. However the oldest court was found in Paso de la Amada on the Pacific coast and dates back to 1400 BC. Because of finds of Olmec ball game items, it was long thought that the Olmec colossal heads represented ball players. It is now thought that they were rulers instead. By the time the Spanish conquistadors reached what we now call Mexico, the game had also been played by the people of Western Mexico, the Teotihuacans, the Mayans, the Veracruz, the Toltecs, the Huastecs and the Aztecs. And in 1528, Spanish conquistador Hernan Cortes, sent an Aztec ball playing troupe to Spain to perform for King Charles V.

The Ball Game

The ball game was not standardized throughout Mesoamerica and several variations emerged over time. The most common form of the game required individual or teams of players to get the ball through a ring using their hips to pass and score. Modern ulama, however resembles volleyball without a net, where the game is won when one team fails to return the ball. Another variation comes from Teotihuacan where the ball was hit with a wooden stick, much like field hockey. In the Aztec game points were gained by hitting the wall behind the opposite team and a decisive victory was achieved by getting the ball through the ring.there are also differences in why the game was played, some games were played for recreation, while others were formal spectacles including religious ceremonies.





Read more at Suite101: The Mesoamerican Ball Game: The First Team Sport in Human History | Suite101.com The Mesoamerican Ball Game: The First Team Sport in Human History | Suite101.com
 

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Я лучше &#1074
Joined
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1,751 Posts
My friend Troy has a sister who has downs syndrome. She's 4 years younger than me, although you'd never know by looking at her. I've always been real nice when she picks up the phone or I go over there to hang out. He's already told me that she thinks I'm nice, something she doesn't think about most boys that come over there.
Cut to Monday night. We all have Tuesday off for Veteran's day, so Troy and I are over at his house (he still lives with his mom) playing some Xbox. His sister is in the room, playing with dolls and occasionally watching the screen as we played. Troy's mom is out running some errands; I think she was at her mother's house. The phone rings at about 8, and it's Troy's mom, Victoria. She tells Jessica (Troy's sister) that her car has broken down and needs Troy to take a look at it. Troy, being a car mechanic leaves to go check out the car, and asked me to look after Jessica while he was gone, since she gets really upset by cars. I agree, and he leaves.
I didn't really know what to do to entertain her, so I just sat around and kind of fucked around, and would occasionally talk to her. For the most part, she sat there and played with her dolls, talking to them. I was sitting at the computers working on an essay for an Archaeology class when she asked me the following:
"What are doing Mike?" "Oh, I'm typing a paper for a class." "Heeee you need paper for class!" "Yep, it's pretty important."
She trailed off for a minute, and I resumed typing. About 5 minutes later, she spoke again.
"Mike, I know sex" - I was taken back. What do I say to her? Do I lie, do I acknowledge that she "knows" sex, what? "Um, I'm not sure if we should talk about that, Jessica." "I try sex with me and it good" "Jessica, we really shouldn't talk about this..." "Will you try with me?"
I didn't know what to do. I was sitting there, with my mouth half opened and I'm sure there was a puddle of drool forming on the carpet pretty fast. She asked again. "Will you try sex with me? Nobody like me like you, you so nice and pretty"
Fuck. Fucksticks. Fucking fuckersticks from planet fuck. I'm getting hit on by a retarded girl. What the fuck do I do?
Yeah, I fucked her. It was her first time, and she bled. It was not pleasant, and she wailed near the end, I guess an orgasm. When we were done I went to the bathroom, cleaned up, and cried. I fixed up myself and made sure she was alright. Then I went back to my essay while she did god knows what. I didn't care, I still don't. A wave of apathy crashed upon me.
Troy showed up about 10 minutes later, and I quickly excused myself to go home. I went home and cried myself to sleep on my pillow, accompanied by the horrible imagery which will haunt me to my grave. I woke up yesterday to the phone ringing, at about 7:30. Most people know to leave me alone at 7:30 when I'm not working, but I rolled over to see the caller ID. I looked down at it, saw it was Troy's house, and answered.
"Hey Mike, I need to, um well...ask you about...uh...something." Me, suddenly awake, "Uh yeah, what's up?" "Well, last night after I brought my mom home, Jessica was acting strangely." "Oh, how do you mean?" "There was blood dripping down her leg." "What the fuck?" "Yeah, that's what we thought, too. We are trying to figure out what happened. Do you know anything?" "No man, I don't. That's pretty fucked up. Say, I got to go because my breakfast is burning." - lie "Alright Mike, I'll talk to you later."
What should I do!?? Confess to him and his mom about Jessica, keep my mouth shut? Threaten her with violence if she talks?
 

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105 Posts
the difference with mma and boxing is boxing is world wide they are in every country and travel to other countries. The UFC is still trying to branch out to other countries they just went to brazil cause thats the home of the UFC the graccie family started it to prove their system will beat any mma out there. No time limit , no weight classes and very little rules thats why it was frowned upon by the media and never made it main stream. But with in the next few years Dana white has some big plans thats why he bought the WEC to have more fighters and weight classes. I know cause me, john dutson, tyler east and other fighters here in Albuquerque had/have contracts with the WEC.
 
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Discussion Starter #18
the difference with mma and boxing is boxing is world wide they are in every country and travel to other countries. The UFC is still trying to branch out to other countries they just went to brazil cause thats the home of the UFC the graccie family started it to prove their system will beat any mma out there. No time limit , no weight classes and very little rules thats why it was frowned upon by the media and never made it main stream. But with in the next few years Dana white has some big plans thats why he bought the WEC to have more fighters and weight classes. I know cause me, john dutson, tyler east and other fighters here in Albuquerque had/have contracts with the WEC.
Is Tyler out of VCDC yet or is he still locked up?
 
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Discussion Starter #19
and how did Tyler ever have a "contract with WEC" considering by the time he turned pro WEC hadn't promoted a heavyweight fight in 3 years and had completely abolished that weight class?


and I think you mean John Dodson
 

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NeverLift
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778 Posts
cliff notes someone? i got shit to do and don't feel like reading this guys thesis.
 
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